Evidence from 2024–2025 strongly supports Sacks’s prediction about Anduril’s Roadrunner.

1. Large 2024 Roadrunner production contract (clear “business winner” signal). In October 2024 the Pentagon awarded Anduril a roughly $250 million air‑defense production contract for more than 500 Roadrunner‑M interceptors plus Pulsar electronic‑warfare systems, specifically to counter UAS (drone) threats against U.S. forces. Deliveries begin in Q4 2024 and run through 2025, and the systems are to be fielded across multiple services in high‑threat regions. (defensenews.com) For a venture‑backed defense startup, a quarter‑billion‑dollar production award for a single counter‑drone product is widely described as a major win.

2. Meaningful adoption as a ground‑based counter‑drone solution. Coverage of the contract and follow‑on reporting emphasizes that Roadrunner is a high‑explosive VTOL interceptor designed specifically to neutralize larger UAS with high speed and maneuverability, and that it will be deployed to operational sites to enhance air defense at the tactical edge—i.e., as a ground‑based counter‑drone system protecting U.S. forces. (asdnews.com) Articles repeatedly stress that Roadrunner was built to be cost‑efficient compared with using expensive surface‑to‑air missiles for drone shoot‑downs, directly matching the cost logic Sacks cited.

3. Scale and validation in 2024, not just a paper program. Army‑focused coverage notes that Roadrunner had been under combat evaluation since January 2024, and that by late 2024 Anduril had secured nearly $350 million in contracts tied to Roadrunner and Pulsar for air‑defense missions. (armyrecognition.com) That indicates both real operational testing and substantial customer commitment, not merely a prototype demo.

4. Anduril’s broader position as a top defense‑tech winner. Separate reporting on Anduril highlights its rapid growth, multibillion‑dollar valuation, and a series of major U.S. government awards, including later investments in large manufacturing capacity. (wsj.com) Against that backdrop, Roadrunner’s 2024 production contract is consistently described as a huge or significant deal in the defense‑tech sector relative to other startup programs.

Taken together, by the end of 2024 Roadrunner had: (a) a very large, multi‑service production contract; (b) documented combat evaluation and planned deployments for ground‑based counter‑UAS defense; and (c) widespread characterization as a cost‑effective, next‑generation interceptor. That matches the substance of Sacks’s prediction that Anduril—via Roadrunner—would be one of the big business winners in defense tech and gain meaningful adoption as a cost‑effective counter‑drone air‑defense solution. Therefore the prediction is best judged right.