Joe Biden ultimately did not remain in the 2024 presidential race: he ended his reelection campaign in July 2024 and withdrew from the race, with major outlets reporting his decision not to seek reelection and to step aside as the Democratic nominee.

Since Sacks’s prediction was effectively that Biden would run and not drop out before the general election with a probability of about 70% (i.e., the more-likely outcome in his view), and the opposite outcome occurred (Biden did drop out before the general election), this specific prediction is counted as wrong in outcome terms.