The prediction was that SVB’s March 2023 failure would trigger about a 60‑day freeze in venture deal-making, with new investments and term sheets dropping to minimal levels as VCs focused almost entirely on existing portfolios.

Available data and contemporaneous reporting don’t support that:

• Global VC activity was already depressed before SVB failed. Crunchbase shows Q1 2023 global funding at about $76B, down ~53% year over year, but flat quarter‑over‑quarter versus Q4 2022, meaning the quarter that included the March 10 SVB collapse did not show an additional cliff‑drop consistent with a sudden freeze. SVB is described as an “added shock to a weakened funding environment,” not the cause of a new standstill. (news.crunchbase.com)

• By late March, observers already reported that any pause in deals had largely passed. A TechCrunch piece on March 29, 2023 reported that SVB’s failure did not appear likely to have “lasting adverse impact” on venture deal activity and that “any pause the news did create … has likely already passed.” DocSend data cited there showed investor activity in pitch decks down only ~7% and founder activity down ~4% versus the same week a year prior, and multiple investors said the brief dip had reversed quickly. (techcrunch.com) That is well inside the predicted 60‑day window.

• Deal flow continued at substantial levels through Q2 2023, not “minimal” levels. Crunchbase’s Q2 2023 report shows global venture funding falling further to ~$65B (down 18% from Q1), but still funding more than 6,000 startups in the quarter, with roughly 1,500 seed and 1,200 early‑stage (Series A/B) rounds. That is a material slowdown, yet far from a freeze or near‑cessation of new deals. (news.crunchbase.com)

• VC behavior did tilt more toward existing portfolios, but not to the exclusion of new deals. S&P Global reported that, particularly in insurtech, VCs “rattled by recent events” were prioritizing reinforcing existing portfolio companies and becoming more selective about new investments, tightening an already difficult fundraising environment. (spglobal.com) PitchBook/NVCA data cited by Clearbrook show a sharp drop in venture debt volume post‑SVB, especially at early stages, but equity deals continued, indicating a shift in risk appetite rather than a 60‑day halt. (clearbrookglobal.com)

Overall, the evidence supports a continuing cyclical downturn and some short‑lived caution immediately after the SVB collapse, not a roughly two‑month period where new venture investments and term sheets fell to minimal levels. On that basis, Sacks’s specific prediction of a 60‑day freeze is best judged wrong.