Assessment window: The prediction was about the ~1–2 years after the 2020–2021 valuation bubble (i.e., roughly 2023–early 2025). We now have data through late 2025.

1. Distress for 2020–2021 “bubble” companies
Multiple datasets show sustained stress for companies that raised at peak valuations:

• 2023 VC funding fell sharply; about 20% of rounds were down rounds, the highest share since the GFC, with prominent late‑stage failures and bankruptcies (WeWork, Convoy, Bird, etc.). Late‑stage valuations were at multi‑year lows and unicorn blow‑ups were common. (mbmcapital.co)
• Analysis of the post‑“everything bubble” environment projected hundreds of unicorns (many minted 2019–2022) losing their status, and noted that a large subset of these 2020–2021 mega‑round companies had <6 months of runway by 2023, implying acute funding stress. (equiam.com)
• Carta data show down‑round rates roughly doubled to ~20% over the last two years vs ~10% in 2019–mid‑2022, with 2022–2023 described as the period when middle‑ and late‑stage companies “felt the sharpest pains,” followed only in 2024 by the beginnings of a recovery. (edwardconard.com)
• As of 2025, down rounds remain elevated (about 15.9% of deals), indicating that distress for many bubble‑era companies persisted into the predicted window. (coinlaw.io)

Taken together, this matches a broad 1–2 year period of material distress for the 2020–2021 cohort.

2. Relative resurgence for new/early‑stage startups
At the same time, conditions for new companies—especially at pre‑seed/seed—were comparatively favorable:

• 2023 was “a tale of two markets”: seed and pre‑seed remained robust, with deal sizes and valuations at 10‑year highs, even as later‑stage activity cratered. (mbmcapital.co)
• PitchBook/Carta data show pre‑seed rounds up 51% in 2023 and growing as a share of seed‑stage deals, indicating strong appetite for very early‑stage startups despite an overall funding pullback. (vccafe.com)
• By 2024, Carta reports seed valuations hitting record highs and intense competition for the most attractive early‑stage deals, while 2022–2023 pain remained concentrated in later stages. (carta.com)
• Angel investor data show pre‑seed and seed valuations surging in 2024, even as Series B+ valuations fell sharply—another sign that capital was relatively more welcoming to new companies than to bubble‑era growth firms. (angelcapitalassociation.org)

There is nuance: some reports note that volume of early‑stage deals hit lows in 2024, even as valuations and competition for the best newcos rose. (kingsoncapital.com) But Gurley’s phrasing—“a little bit of a resurgence for new companies”—is directionally consistent with the data on pre‑seed/seed robustness and investor interest.

Conclusion: The core dynamics he described—a 1–2 year stretch of distress for 2020–2021 bubble companies alongside a relative resurgence in opportunity for newly founded startups—materialized broadly as predicted.