Sacks said, late on election night (Nov 3–4, 2020), that the race was “back to a coin flip” and that, with Wisconsin and Arizona then called for Biden, Trump would need to win Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania to take the presidency, while Biden would win if he carried any one of those three. In the final certified results, Biden won Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania and thus the presidency, 306–232 in the Electoral College, and under that final map it is straightforward to verify that if Arizona and Wisconsin stay with Biden, then Trump can only reach 270+ electoral votes by sweeping all three of Georgia (16 EV), Michigan (16 EV) and Pennsylvania (20 EV), whereas Biden reaches at least 270 if he wins even one of them. (en.wikipedia.org) This exactly matches the conditional structure Sacks described, and Biden’s actual path to victory—holding Arizona and Wisconsin and winning all three of those states—fell within the scenario he laid out. While his “coin flip” description of the live odds is not directly falsifiable and markets at different moments that night put each candidate well above 50%, some prediction markets around that time in fact traded in a range reasonably close to even money between Trump and Biden. (newsmax.com) Because the concretely testable part of his forecast (the electoral-vote pathways conditional on state outcomes) was accurate and the actual outcome satisfied the condition he attached to a Biden win, this prediction is best scored as “right.”