Sacks @ 01:22:12Right
politics
Sacks predicts, as of July 31, 2020, that Joe Biden is on track to win the November 2020 U.S. presidential election, with Trump as a “huge underdog.”
It's still it's it's still it's still to me. I mean, Trump has got to be the huge underdog here. I mean, right now it looks like Biden's going to win.View on YouTube
Explanation
Outcome check
- The prediction (July 31, 2020) was that Joe Biden was on track to win the November 2020 U.S. presidential election and that Donald Trump was a “huge underdog.”
- In the actual 2020 U.S. presidential election held on November 3, 2020, Joe Biden won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump. Biden received 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232 and a popular vote margin of over 7 million votes.
Assessment
- The core claim is probabilistic/forward-looking: that as of late July 2020, Biden was likely to win and Trump’s chances were low.
- The eventual outcome (Biden winning) matched the predicted direction of the race; the “huge underdog” characterization is consistent with polling averages at that time, which showed Biden with a significant national lead. (This is an inference from the widely reported polling context in mid-2020.)
Conclusion
- Because Biden did in fact win the 2020 election, the directional prediction that Biden was on track to win and Trump was a heavy underdog is substantively correct.
Therefore:
- result:
right