I said, like over a year ago, I thought that the that 2024 would be Newsom, DeSantis race. I still think there's like a 20% chance of that... Maybe 10%.View on YouTube
The prediction was that there was a roughly 10–20% chance that the 2024 U.S. presidential general election matchup would be Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis.
In reality, the 2024 general election was between Donald Trump (Republican) and Kamala Harris (Democrat), with running mates JD Vance and Tim Walz, respectively; neither Newsom nor DeSantis was on either major-party ticket. (en.wikipedia.org)
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden initially ran for re‑election, then withdrew in July 2024; Kamala Harris subsequently became the Democratic nominee. Gavin Newsom never entered the 2024 presidential race and had previously indicated he would not challenge Biden, instead endorsing Biden’s re‑election bid. (en.wikipedia.org)
On the Republican side, Ron DeSantis did run in the primaries but suspended his campaign on January 21, 2024 and endorsed Donald Trump, who then secured the Republican nomination at the July 2024 Republican National Convention. (en.wikipedia.org)
Since the specific scenario “Newsom vs. DeSantis” did not occur as the 2024 general election matchup, the event to which Sacks assigned 10–20% probability failed to happen. Interpreting the question as “Did that predicted matchup materialize?”, the prediction is therefore wrong in outcome terms, even though assigning a low probability to an event that doesn’t occur is not necessarily poor probabilistic calibration.