Why this prediction is wrong

Sacks made two linked claims:

1. The 2020 election would not be close, but a Biden “blowout” where he would “run away with it.”

   • Final results: Joe Biden won about 51.3% of the popular vote to Donald Trump’s 46.9%, a margin of roughly 4.5 percentage points and about 7.1 million votes. (pewresearch.org)
   • In the Electoral College, Biden won 306–232. (presidency.ucsb.edu)
   • Key tipping‑point states (e.g., Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia) were decided by 0.6 percentage points or less; if Trump had flipped all three, the Electoral College would have been 269–269. (pollbludger.net)
   • Analysts widely characterized this as a decisive but relatively modest victory, not a landslide akin to, for example, Reagan in 1984.

   Given the narrow margins in pivotal states and the single‑digit national margin, the outcome was not the kind of overwhelming “blowout” or runaway race that would normally render disputes moot.

2. Because it wouldn’t be close, the U.S. would “avoid the crisis” (a post‑election constitutional/legitimacy crisis).
   In reality, the aftermath produced exactly the sort of crisis he thought would be avoided:

   • Trump and allies launched a sustained campaign to overturn the results, filing around 60 lawsuits and pressuring state and federal officials to discard or reverse certified outcomes. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • On January 6, 2021, a pro‑Trump mob attacked the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to disrupt and delay the Electoral College vote count and pressure Congress and Vice President Pence to overturn Biden’s victory. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Congress’ certification of the electoral votes was temporarily halted by violent disruption and only completed later that night, after the building was secured. (theguardian.com)
   • The House established the January 6th Committee, which concluded that January 6 was the culmination of a multi‑part effort by Trump to overturn the election and described it as an attempted coup, leading to legislative reforms (e.g., the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022) specifically intended to prevent a repeat of this crisis. (en.wikipedia.org)

The combination of a relatively narrow, contestable outcome in pivotal states and an unprecedented attempt by the incumbent to overturn the result did produce a major legitimacy and constitutional crisis, including violence aimed at stopping the peaceful transfer of power.

Because (a) the election was not a clear “blowout” and (b) the post‑election period did feature exactly the kind of crisis he said would be avoided, Sacks’ prediction is best classified as wrong.