Sacks @ 01:15:41Inconclusive
politicsgovernment
Within the next few years following the April 2024 TikTok law, there will be a concerted U.S. media and political campaign framing Telegram as a Russian‑backdoored tool for terrorists (e.g., Hamas) with shady investors, aimed at justifying U.S. government action to restrict or ban Telegram in the U.S.
you're going to see at some point, you'll see a media campaign that will be promoting the idea that telegram is used by Hamas, by terrorists, by groups that the US doesn't like, and that it's backdoored by Russia, and that it's got some shady investors on its cap table, and no politician is going to want to stand up and defend telegram. And all the industry money that flows into Washington will be promoting this idea that we have to ban it... this is a foregone.View on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, the timeframe implied by 'within the next few years' after the April 24, 2024 TikTok law has not fully elapsed, so it is too early to say definitively whether Sacks’s forecast will play out.
Evidence so far:
- The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (the April 2024 TikTok law) explicitly targets TikTok/ByteDance; it has not been applied to Telegram, and no new federal law or executive action has been adopted that would ban or broadly restrict Telegram in the U.S. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Some U.S. political messaging now explicitly groups Telegram with TikTok as a platform exploited by terrorists. For example, an August 2024 Homeland Security subcommittee press release on a bipartisan bill warns about foreign‑controlled apps like TikTok and encrypted messaging platforms like Telegram being used by terrorist organizations, but it only mandates DHS threat assessments rather than proposing a ban. (homeland.house.gov)
- U.S. and international media have for years reported that Hamas and other extremist groups use Telegram; this continued after April 2024, with investigations describing Hamas‑aligned propaganda channels and possible radicalization of U.S. users. (nypost.com) However, this is not yet a broad, coordinated U.S. media campaign uniquely focused on Telegram.
- Claims that Telegram is effectively compromised or backdoored by Russian intelligence are being pushed mainly by Ukrainian officials (who banned Telegram on official devices over spying concerns) and by investigative outlets such as IStories (amplified in English by smaller sites), not as a central talking point of major U.S. media or top U.S. officials. (tbsnews.net)
- U.S. government action has so far targeted specific extremist networks that use Telegram, such as designating the far‑right Terrorgram collective as a terrorist group, rather than Telegram itself as a platform. (en.wikipedia.org)
Taken together, there are some elements of the dynamic Sacks described (messaging about terrorists’ use of Telegram and some discussion of Russian‑linked risks), but there is not yet clear evidence of the kind of sustained, coordinated U.S. media‑plus‑industry campaign to justify a nationwide Telegram ban that he portrayed as a 'foregone' conclusion. Because both the horizon ('next few years') and key causal steps he described are still unfolding, the prediction is best classified as inconclusive at this time.