ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
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Sacks @ 01:17:05Ambiguous
politicsgovernment
If Joe Biden wins a second term, the U.S. Attorney General or relevant federal authority will open a formal investigation into X (Twitter) under the new foreign‑adversary‑controlled application powers and use it to apply sustained pressure on Elon Musk to divest or materially change control of X during that term.
in a second Biden term, they will open an investigation and to start ratcheting up the pressure on Elon to get rid of X, because that's clearly what they want.View on YouTube
Explanation

  • Joe Biden did not win a second term. The 2024 U.S. presidential election was won by Donald Trump, with Trump/Vance defeating the Harris/Walz ticket, so there is no “second Biden term” in which the described conduct by Biden’s attorney general could occur. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) was signed by Biden in April 2024 and gives the president and attorney general powers over “foreign‑adversary‑controlled applications,” explicitly targeting TikTok/ByteDance and allowing similar designations for other apps under specified conditions. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Under President Trump, use of these powers has focused on TikTok (including multiple executive orders delaying and shaping enforcement) rather than on X, and there is no public record of X being designated or investigated under PAFACA by federal authorities. (whitehouse.gov)

Because Biden never obtained a second term, the conditional scenario (“if Biden wins a second term, then his administration will open a PAFACA‑style investigation into X to pressure Musk to divest”) never arose. We therefore cannot know from real‑world events whether that hypothetical would have occurred. The prediction is about a counterfactual world rather than the world that actually unfolded, so its correctness cannot be determined from observed outcomes.