Sacks’ statement was: “I do think it makes him more likely to be the nominee.” This is a claim about the change in probability of Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination as a result of the CNN town hall, not a direct prediction that Trump will or won’t become the nominee.

Factually, Donald Trump did go on to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination; he was formally nominated at the Republican National Convention in July 2024, after dominating the primary process and securing the required delegates earlier in the year.

However, whether the CNN town hall increased the likelihood of that outcome is a counterfactual causal claim: we cannot observe the alternative timeline in which the town hall did not occur and compare probabilities. Because of that, the truth of the specific normalized prediction — that the town hall made Trump more likely to win the nomination — cannot be definitively verified or falsified from observable data, even though we know the eventual outcome.

Therefore, the appropriate classification is "ambiguous": enough time has passed and the nomination outcome is known, but the causal effect of the town hall on Trump’s likelihood of winning cannot be determined from available evidence.