The prediction was that, after the Fed’s early‑2022 hawkish shift, the risk (probability) of a U.S. recession during calendar year 2022 was now “much greater” than before. This is a statement about changes in probability, not a direct forecast that a recession would definitely occur.

What we can check:

• The Federal Reserve did, in fact, pivot to aggressive tightening starting in March 2022, with rapid rate hikes through the year, which many economists and market analysts argued raised the risk of recession.
• However, the U.S. did not experience an officially dated NBER recession in 2022; while real GDP was negative in Q1 and Q2 2022, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not classified 2022 as a recession year, citing continued job growth and other indicators.

Whether the probability of recession in 2022 became “much greater” is not directly observable ex post; it depends on models or expectations that are not uniquely defined. The fact that no official 2022 recession occurred doesn’t by itself show that the risk didn’t rise; high‑probability events can fail to occur, and low‑probability events sometimes do occur. Because we cannot objectively verify the claimed change in probability against a clear standard, the statement cannot be cleanly scored as right or wrong.

Therefore the appropriate classification is ambiguous: the prediction concerns a shift in recession risk rather than an outcome that can be definitively checked against realized data.