I think there's a very good chance that they will get shut down in the US.View on YouTube
Evidence shows that TikTok was, in fact, prohibited from operating in the U.S. market—via a law-triggered shutdown of its U.S. service—after the July 2020 conversation.
Key points:
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Congress passed a specific TikTok ban-or-divest law. In April 2024, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act was signed into law. It explicitly targeted ByteDance/TikTok and required that such “foreign adversary controlled applications” be divested or else banned from U.S. app stores and hosting services by January 19, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)
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On January 19, 2025, the U.S. TikTok ban formally took effect and TikTok shut down service in the U.S. Multiple outlets report that at 12:01 a.m. EST on January 19, 2025, TikTok was officially shut down in the United States under that law. U.S. users saw a message stating that a law banning TikTok had been enacted and that they could not use TikTok "for now." (britannica.com) Apple and Google removed TikTok from their U.S. app stores at that time, and related ByteDance apps such as CapCut also went offline in the U.S. (9to5mac.com)
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The shutdown was a direct consequence of a legal prohibition on TikTok’s operation in the U.S. The law barred app distributors and hosting providers from distributing, maintaining, or updating TikTok in the United States, which effectively prohibited its legal operation in the U.S. market and prompted the app to go dark for U.S. users. (en.wikipedia.org)
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Service was later restored, but the prediction only required that a ban/forced shutdown occur at some point. After Donald Trump took office, he issued an executive order delaying enforcement, and TikTok restored service in the U.S. while negotiations for a U.S.-controlled ownership structure proceeded. (theguardian.com) Nonetheless, the prediction was that TikTok would likely be prohibited from operating in the U.S. market at some point—not that such a prohibition would be permanent.
Because TikTok was in fact legally banned and its U.S. service shut down under that ban (even though later temporarily restored), the prediction that it would be “shut down in the US” / “prohibited from operating in the United States market” did come true.