Sacks @ 00:27:44Inconclusive
economygovernment
In the near future (roughly over the next 5–10 years), the US federal budget will become so constrained by debt and interest costs that spending will be increasingly concentrated on entitlements and defense, with a large share of other discretionary federal programs being cut or significantly reduced.
I think that whole shell game might just be over now because there's no more money left. I mean, it's all been spent. In fact, you know what I mean? So, like all the federal government probably will end up doing in the near future is entitlements and defense. That's it. Because those are the core core functions of the federal government. I think everything else that's that sort of quote unquote discretionary is probably going to get cut because there's no more money left.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction explicitly concerns the “near future” over roughly the next 5–10 years after November 2024. That window runs approximately from 2029 to 2034. As of today (30 November 2025), we are only about one year into that period, so the full outcome cannot yet be assessed.
What we can say so far:
- Current and projected U.S. federal budgets do show growing shares for entitlements and interest costs, with discretionary spending (both defense and non‑defense) shrinking as a share of GDP over the long term. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that, under current law, spending growth is driven mainly by Social Security, major health programs (Medicare, Medicaid, ACA subsidies), and interest, while discretionary spending falls as a share of GDP over the next 30 years.
- However, as of the most recent enacted and proposed budgets (FY 2024 and FY 2025), the federal government still funds a wide range of non‑defense discretionary programs (education, scientific research, infrastructure grants, etc.). Non‑defense discretionary has not been “mostly eliminated” yet; it remains a significant category, even if constrained and projected to decline as a share of the budget.
Because the claim is specifically about where things will end up over the next 5–10 years (i.e., by the early–mid 2030s) rather than where they stand right now, and we have not yet reached that horizon, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong at this time.