Multiple brokerage reports for Q4 2022 show San Francisco’s office market was far from 40% vacant or 30 million square feet empty by year‑end 2022:

• Transwestern reported the market closed 2022 at a record-high 23.7% vacancy, with 8.6 million sq. ft. of sublet space equal to 9.5% of total office stock. That implies total stock of about 90.5 million sq. ft. (8.6 ÷ 0.095). Applying the 23.7% vacancy rate to that stock yields roughly 21.5 million sq. ft. vacant, well below 30 million.

  Available sublet space totaled 8.6 million square feet, representing 9.5% of total office stock… vacancy of 23.7% in Q4 2022. (transwestern.com)

• CBRE’s official San Francisco Office Figures Q4 2022 put overall vacancy even higher, at 27.6%. Using the same ~90.5 million sq. ft. stock, that implies roughly 25 million sq. ft. vacant (0.276 × 90.5M), still materially below 30 million and well under 40% of inventory. (cbre.com)

• Cresa’s Q4 2022 San Francisco Office Occupier’s Guide likewise reports a 23.6% total vacancy rate and 31.9% total availability at year‑end 2022, consistent with vacancy in the mid‑20s percent, not 40%. (cresa.com)

Subsequent reporting shows San Francisco didn’t hit roughly 30 million sq. ft. of empty offices until later in 2023, when CBRE data cited by the San Francisco Chronicle and other outlets showed about 33–34% vacancy and nearly 30 million sq. ft. vacant—still short of 40% and occurring about a year after the prediction’s deadline. (sfchronicle.com)

So by December 31, 2022, the best available data indicate:

• Total office stock ≈ 90–91 million sq. ft., not 75 million.
• Vacancy ≈ 23–28%, not 40%.
• Vacant space ≈ 21–25 million sq. ft., not 30 million.

Because both the magnitude of vacant space and the vacancy percentage were substantially below what was predicted, and the total inventory figure was understated, the prediction is incorrect for its stated timeframe.