Sacks @ 00:17:02Wrong
healthpolitics
Forecast of Trump’s COVID-19 course and political impact (from 3 Oct 2020): ~50% probability that his illness effectively resolves in about one week and benefits him politically; ~40% probability that he has a longer 3–4 week course that limits campaigning and hurts him electorally; ~5–10% probability of a more serious outcome (e.g., critical illness or death).
I think the most I think the most likely outcome here is that because he's got the best care, um, he's you know, it's probably like at least 50% that this is over for him in about a week. Um, and it redounds to his political advantage. I think there's probably a 40% chance that, you know, he's got more like a 3 or 4 week case, which I think would hurt him because he wouldn't be able to campaign. And then there's maybe like a 5 or 10% chance of something more serious.View on YouTube
Explanation
Trump’s actual COVID-19 course and its electoral effects don’t match any of the three scenarios Sacks laid out.
Medical course:
- Trump announced his positive test on October 2, 2020, was hospitalized October 2–5 at Walter Reed, and returned to the White House October 5.(en.wikipedia.org)
- By October 7–8, his physician reported he was fever‑free for several days, symptom‑free for over 24 hours, and expected to be safe to resume public engagements around October 10.(aljazeera.com)
- He held his first full campaign rally in Sanford, Florida, on October 12, just 10 days after the diagnosis announcement and a week after hospital discharge.(washingtonpost.com)
This is closer to a ~1–1.5 week disruption, not the 3–4 week limitation envisioned in his 40% scenario, and far from the “more serious” (ICU/ventilator/death) 5–10% scenario.
Political impact:
- After the first debate and Trump’s COVID diagnosis, national and swing‑state polling showed Biden’s lead stable or expanding, not a Trump boost. For example, CNBC/Change Research and other averages saw Biden’s margin in key swing states and nationally tick up in the week after the diagnosis.(cnbc.com)
- One Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald poll found Biden’s national lead widening from 5 points pre‑diagnosis to 21 points immediately afterward.(newsweek.com)
- Trump ultimately lost the 2020 election, and research on COVID and the 2020 vote finds that higher local COVID case counts reduced Trump’s vote share, indicating the pandemic—including perceptions of his handling of it—hurt him electorally.(pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
Putting this together:
- Reality combined a short illness (near his 50% medical timeline) with no clear political benefit and likely net harm, contrary to the “redounds to his political advantage” part of that scenario.
- His 40% scenario (3–4 week case that prevents campaigning) did not occur, as he was back to large rallies within about 10 days.(washingtonpost.com)
- The 5–10% serious‑outcome scenario also did not materialize.
Because the real world outcome (short course + neutral/negative political impact) is not one of the structured scenarios he assigned substantial probability to—especially his main 50% case tying a quick recovery to political advantage—the prediction is best judged wrong rather than ambiguous or inconclusive.