Sacks @ 00:15:13Wrong
aitech
OpenAI will release GPT‑5 within a few weeks to a few months after April 26, 2024, and GPT‑5 will represent a large, clearly noticeable quality improvement over GPT‑4, putting OpenAI roughly one full model cycle ahead of the open‑source community.
the scuttlebutt about ChatGPT five is that it's amazing, and it's a big improvement over GPT four, and supposedly it's going to come out any day, week or month. So if GPT five comes out and knocks our socks off in a few weeks, then we're going to see that, oh, they're actually a cycle ahead of the open source community.View on YouTube
Explanation
Based on public information as of November 30, 2025, this prediction did not come true in the way it was framed.
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No public, clearly branded “GPT‑5” release in the predicted window
- The prediction (made April 26, 2024) said GPT‑5 would come out “any day, week or month” after that. That implies a release in the following few weeks to at most a few months (i.e., roughly by late summer 2024) as a distinct next‑generation model.
- OpenAI publicly launched GPT‑4o in May 2024 as an improved GPT‑4‑class model, but they did not describe it as GPT‑5 or as a new generation beyond the GPT‑4 family. OpenAI’s own materials consistently frame GPT‑4o as part of the GPT‑4 generation (optimized for speed, cost, and multimodal usage), not as “GPT‑5.”
- As of late 2025, there is no widely documented, clearly named GPT‑5 release matching the "any day, week or month" timeline after April 26, 2024.
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Quality jump and full‑cycle lead over open source not demonstrably realized as predicted
- While OpenAI models (e.g., GPT‑4o and subsequent iterative improvements) remain at or near the frontier, open‑source models have also advanced rapidly, with many competitive or specialized systems narrowing the gap rather than obviously falling a full cycle behind.
- Because there is no clear, acknowledged GPT‑5 release in that timeframe to evaluate, the claim that it would “knock our socks off” and prove OpenAI is “a cycle ahead of the open source community” cannot be validated as stated.
Given that:
- The timing condition (release of GPT‑5 within a few weeks to a few months after April 26, 2024) was not met, and
- The substantive content of the prediction (a clearly labeled GPT‑5 with a large, obvious quality jump that establishes a full‑cycle lead) has not materialized in the way described,
the appropriate classification for this prediction is:
result: "wrong" — the key event (a timely, publicly released GPT‑5 with the described impact) did not occur within the predicted window, and more than enough time has passed to judge it.