By late 2025, the U.S. has not entered anything resembling a 1970s‑style stagflation regime.

Growth vs. stagnation: Real U.S. GDP grew 2.1–2.9% annually in 2022–2024, with 2024 growth at about 2.8%—solidly positive rather than stagnant. Aside from a one‑quarter dip of –0.3% in Q1 2025, the broader 2021–2024 period averaged roughly 3.2% real growth, and forecasts for 2025–2026 still show positive growth around 2–2.5%. This is inconsistent with the prolonged weak or zero growth that defined 1970s stagflation.

Inflation level and persistence: Inflation did spike in 2021–2022, but it has trended back toward the Fed’s target. Core PCE inflation fell from over 5% in 2022 to roughly 2–3% by 2023–2025, while headline CPI growth slowed from the 2022 peak to the low‑to‑mid‑3% range in 2023–2024 and around that level in 2025. That’s above 2% but far below the sustained high single‑digit inflation of the 1970s.

Labor market: Unemployment remained historically low—around 3.5–4.0% through 2023–2024, rising only modestly to about 4.0% on average in 2024 and roughly 4.4% by late 2025. The 1970s, by contrast, involved both elevated inflation and significantly higher, persistent unemployment.

Policy and consensus outlook: While some analysts in 2024–2025 warned about risks of stagflation, mainstream forecasts envision moderate growth with inflation in the mid‑2% to high‑2% range, not an entrenched stagflationary regime, and they expect the Fed to continue easing gradually rather than being cornered without tools.

Because the U.S. economy has not exhibited the combination of persistent high inflation and prolonged stagnation characteristic of 1970s stagflation within the few years after April 2022, Sacks’s implied scenario that the U.S. would "end up with something like a 1970s style stagflation" in that window has, as of November 2025, not occurred.