Last updated Nov 29, 2025
politicsgovernment
The November 2022 U.S. midterm elections will be a wave election (strongly favoring one party, implied to be Republicans), in which party affiliation matters more than candidate quality, resulting in some MAGA-aligned or "crazy" candidates winning office who otherwise would not win in a normal year.
This year, I think this November is likely to be a wave election. And when you get a wave election, the specific candidate matters less and party matters more. So you could get some of these crazy swept into office.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sacks predicted that the November 2022 U.S. midterms would be a Republican 'wave election' where party label overwhelmed candidate quality and some MAGA or otherwise 'crazy' candidates would be swept into office who would not win in a normal year. In reality, the 2022 midterms were historically mild for a president's party: Republicans gained only about nine U.S. House seats and a narrow majority, while Democrats gained one Senate seat and a net two governorships, an outcome widely characterized as the expected red wave failing to materialize. (en.wikipedia.org) Analyses of the results also emphasize that candidate quality and extremism mattered a great deal: Trump-aligned or election-denying Republicans underperformed in key statewide races in states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and others, costing the GOP winnable Senate and governor contests rather than being carried to victory by a national partisan surge. (fivethirtyeight.com) While some strongly pro-Trump or hard-right candidates did win in safely Republican areas, that is typical partisan sorting and not evidence of an unusual nationwide wave. Because there was no Republican wave election and candidate quality clearly affected outcomes instead of being swamped by party affiliation, Sacks's prediction did not come true.