Sacks @ 01:03:46Wrong
politicsgovernment
Chamath estimates a 20% probability that if Donald Trump loses the 2020 election, he will resign during the lame-duck period and arrange for Mike Pence to pardon him.
During the lame duck, during the lame duck period, if he lost, maybe 20%.View on YouTube
Explanation
Donald Trump did not resign during the lame-duck period after losing the 2020 election, nor did Mike Pence become president and issue Trump a pardon.
Key facts:
- Joe Biden won the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump served out his full term until January 20, 2021, when Biden was inaugurated and Trump’s presidency ended normally; Trump never resigned from office during the transition period.
- Mike Pence never assumed the presidency and therefore never had the opportunity to issue a presidential pardon to Trump.
- No record exists of Trump receiving any presidential pardon (from himself, Pence, or anyone else) for federal crimes in connection with his term.
Because the prediction required both (1) resignation during the lame-duck period and (2) a subsequent Pence pardon for Trump, and neither occurred, the prediction is wrong.