By November 30, 2025, the U.S. has not experienced an officially recognized recession since the brief COVID downturn in early 2020. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) business‑cycle chronology still lists the most recent peak as February 2020 and the trough as April 2020, with no subsequent peak or recession dated after that, implying the expansion that began in May 2020 is ongoing. (nber.org)

Economic data over the 2023–2025 period show slowing but continued growth rather than a broad, sustained contraction. Real GDP did contract slightly at a –0.3% annualized rate in Q1 2025, but detailed analysis notes that final domestic demand was still growing, and explicitly concludes that the U.S. economy was not in recession that quarter. (desjardins.com) Major forecasters through 2024–2025 described the outlook as a “soft landing” or at worst a mild slowdown, repeatedly emphasizing that the economy was not in recession, even as risks rose. (goldmansachs.com) Other contemporaneous commentary likewise characterizes the national economy as weak or vulnerable but not yet in recession as of late 2025. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Since more than two years have passed since Sacks’ April 28, 2023 statement and no NBER‑defined recession or clear broad downturn has occurred in that interval, his prediction that the U.S. was “still going to have a recession” in the near term has, to date, not come true. Thus, on the evidence available by late 2025, the prediction is best classified as wrong rather than merely “too early to tell.”