Sacks @ 01:01:56Wrong
politics
Chamath predicts that, based on October 2020 polling, the 2020 U.S. election is tracking toward a Biden landslide and that Donald Trump has insufficient time remaining before Election Day (November 3, 2020) to significantly change the polling trajectory.
it looks like a by and landslide. I, um, and I guess that makes sense. I think Trump's running out of time to change the polls.View on YouTube
Explanation
Why this prediction is rated “wrong”
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No Biden “landslide” in the actual 2020 result
- Final outcome: Joe Biden won 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 232, the exact reverse of Trump’s 2016 total. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Popular vote: Biden 51.3% vs. Trump 46.8%, a margin of about 4.5 percentage points. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Political science and media usage of “landslide” generally implies an overwhelming or unusually large margin; there is no fixed threshold, but it connotes a decisive blowout well beyond a typical competitive race. (en.wikipedia.org)
- A 4.5‑point popular‑vote margin and a 306–232 Electoral College result (with several tipping‑point states decided by less than 2 points) are widely regarded as a solid but not overwhelming win. This falls short of what most observers would call a “landslide.”
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Trump did significantly cut Biden’s polling lead after mid‑October
The prediction added that Trump was “running out of time to change the polls,” implying the October polling picture would mostly hold.- Around three weeks before Election Day (mid‑October 2020), national polling averages had Biden ahead by about 10 points (e.g., RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight both had Biden +10.6 on Oct. 13). (reddit.com)
- In the final days before the election, a composite of major polling averages showed Biden ahead by roughly 7.9 points nationally (51.4% to 43.5%). (en.wikipedia.org)
- The actual popular‑vote margin was Biden +4.5. (en.wikipedia.org)
- From mid‑October to the vote count, Trump effectively narrowed Biden’s advantage by about 5–6 points relative to early/mid‑October polling, which is a substantial shift in the trajectory, even though it wasn’t enough to win.
Conclusion
The prediction contained two key claims:
- The race was “tracking toward a Biden landslide.”
- Trump had too little time left to significantly change the polls.
Biden’s eventual victory was neither a landslide by common standards nor a freezing of the mid‑October polling picture; Trump did meaningfully erode Biden’s lead before Election Day, though he still lost. Therefore, taken as stated, the prediction is wrong.