Sacks @ 01:10:24Inconclusive
conflictgovernment
U.S. industrial production capacity for 155mm artillery shells will be increased to approximately 90,000 shells per month sometime between 2025 and 2028.
They've scaled that to somewhere Between 20 and 30,000 a month now, and they're saying that they will get to about 90,000 in somewhere between 2025 and 2028.View on YouTube
Explanation
Available evidence shows the U.S. is well below 90,000 155mm shells per month as of late 2025, but official plans still target a production capacity in roughly that range by 2026–2028, and the prediction’s window (2025–2028) has not yet closed.
Key points:
- A 2023 Army plan aimed to boost 155mm production from about 14,000 per month to 85,000 per month by FY 2028—very close to the “about 90,000” level Sacks referenced. (defensenews.com)
- U.S. planning documents and summaries (e.g., Wikipedia drawing on DOD statements) describe a goal to raise production to roughly 90,000 shells per month (about 1 million per year) by around 2025, later adjusted in other reporting to mid‑decade. (en.wikipedia.org)
- A 2024 Congressional Research Service report notes that monthly U.S. 155mm output had risen from ~14,400 (2022) to 40,000 per month by 2024, with an Army target of 100,000 per month by the end of 2025—showing the intended scale of industrial capacity but not yet reaching it. (congress.gov)
- In April 2025 testimony covered by Business Insider, Gen. Christopher Cavoli stated that the U.S. then produced about 40,000 155mm shells per month, and “hopes to reach a monthly production capacity of 90,000 rounds in 2026.” (businessinsider.com)
- Additional coverage in 2025 on production shortfalls reports that, despite plans for 75,000–100,000 per month by late 2025, actual output stalled near 40,000 per month, and the 100,000‑per‑month goal has slipped to around mid‑2026. (thedefensewatch.com)
Interpretation vs. prediction:
- Sacks’ prediction was not that the U.S. already would be at 90,000 per month in 2025, but that industrial capacity would reach roughly 90,000 per month at some point between 2025 and 2028.
- Current data show production capacity and output are still below that level in 2025, though official U.S. plans and investments explicitly aim for ~90,000–100,000 per month capacity by 2026–2028.
- Because we have not yet reached the end of the stated 2025–2028 window, and the U.S. still actively plans to hit roughly that level within this period, we cannot yet say definitively whether the prediction will end up being correct or incorrect.
Given that the deadline has not passed and the key threshold (~90k/month capacity) has not yet been reached, the status of the prediction is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.