ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
← Back to hostEpisode
Sacks @ 00:43:04Wrong
healtheconomy
By summer 2021, COVID-19 will be a "distant memory" in practical terms in the U.S.: case rates will have dropped substantially, and people will largely have returned to pre‑pandemic activities (e.g., attending sports games and public events) at levels similar to summer 2019/2020, with only limited transitional measures like rapid testing in place for a few additional months.
for all of these reasons, I think COVID's going to be a distant memory by next summer, I really do. I think, um, I think... I think people will largely be back, um, to what they were doing last summer or by next summer.View on YouTube
Explanation

Summary of the prediction

Sacks predicted in September 2020 that by summer 2021 in the U.S., COVID-19 would be a “distant memory” in practical terms, with people “largely…back to what they were doing last summer or by next summer.” That implies:

  • Substantially lower, non‑salient case rates
  • Pandemic no longer a central concern
  • Broad return to pre‑pandemic‑style activities, with only limited transitional measures

What actually happened by summer 2021

  1. Major Delta wave and high case counts

    • By June–August 2021, the highly transmissible Delta variant had become the dominant strain in the U.S.; by July 7, 2021, CDC data showed Delta had surpassed Alpha as the main variant. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • By August 1, 2021, the U.S. had surpassed 35 million cumulative cases, and Delta accounted for 99% of new cases by August, driving a large summer surge and putting intense pressure on hospitals in many states. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • In mid‑August 2021, weekly new infections reached over 900,000 nationally (about 130,000 per day), comparable to major prior peaks and clearly not a “distant” issue. (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Hospitals under severe strain

    • The Delta wave produced a hospital crisis in many parts of the U.S. during July–September 2021, with ICUs over 90% full in multiple states and some regions effectively running out of ICU capacity. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • This level of strain is inconsistent with COVID having faded into the background of daily life.

  3. Ongoing public‑health measures and concern

    • On July 27, 2021, the CDC re‑instated guidance recommending that fully vaccinated people wear masks in public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission, in direct response to Delta. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • This reversal indicates that, far from being a “distant memory,” COVID was still driving major policy changes and public anxiety well into summer 2021.

  4. Activities and events were not fully back to normal

    • While many activities (e.g., some sports events, travel, dining) had partially resumed with vaccines, they were often accompanied by capacity limits, masking, or proof‑of‑vaccination/testing requirements, and were periodically disrupted or re‑restricted as the Delta wave grew. This pattern is visible in state‑level chronicles: for example, Arkansas and Minnesota saw rising summer cases, renewed mask rules in certain settings, and concerns about school, camp, and youth‑related outbreaks by August 2021. (en.wikipedia.org)
    • Nationally, case and hospitalization trends in mid‑2021 still followed strong waves (e.g., May–September 2021 cycle), not a stable, low‑concern background level. (acsh.org)

Evaluation

By summer 2021 in the U.S., COVID-19 was:

  • Driving a major Delta wave with very high case counts and hospital strain
  • Prompting renewed CDC masking guidance and other mitigation steps
  • Still a central social, political, and personal concern

Although vaccines allowed some resumption of activities, the situation did not match the prediction that COVID would be a “distant memory” in practical terms with a broad, near‑normal return to pre‑pandemic life. The pandemic remained salient and disruptive.

Verdict: wrong.