Sacks @ 00:43:02Wrong
markets
Following WeWork’s expected Chapter 11 filing (signaled for early November 2023), a private equity firm will acquire WeWork’s assets out of bankruptcy, restructure its leases and locations, and ultimately generate very large financial returns from the restructured business relative to the distressed purchase price.
There's no question that that WeWork has been a capital destruction machine. That being said, I actually think that some private equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune.View on YouTube
Explanation
WeWork did file for Chapter 11 in November 2023, but the post‑bankruptcy outcome did not match Sacks’s prediction of “some private equity player…buy[ing] this out of bankruptcy and mak[ing] a fortune.”
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Who actually took control:
- WeWork emerged from Chapter 11 in late May / June 2024 through a creditor‑led reorganization, not a sale of assets to a private equity firm.
- Real‑estate software company Yardi Systems, via its subsidiary Cupar Grimmond, invested about $337M as part of a ~$450M exit financing and ended up with roughly a 60% majority stake, while other lenders and bondholders took most of the remaining equity. There was no 363 asset sale to a PE buyer; control shifted to Yardi and lenders under a court‑approved plan of reorganization. (en.wikipedia.org)
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Restructuring leases and locations:
- Through Chapter 11, WeWork eliminated about $4B of debt, cut roughly $8–12B in future rent obligations, and exited around 160–170 unprofitable locations, shrinking to about 600 locations globally. This matches the “restructure leases and locations” part of the thesis, but that restructuring was executed under the creditor/Yardi plan, not by a PE buyer acquiring the assets. (en.wikipedia.org)
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“Make a fortune” outcome:
- After emerging, WeWork became a private company with a projected equity value in the mid‑hundreds of millions and an internal plan merely aiming for modest profitability around 2025. There is no public evidence as of late 2025 that Yardi or any investor has realized “very large” returns or “made a fortune” on the post‑bankruptcy equity; the investment is still being worked out and remains illiquid. (wsj.com)
Because (a) no private equity firm bought WeWork’s assets out of bankruptcy and (b) there is no evidence yet of outsized realized returns from such a buyout, the prediction as stated is best classified as wrong, even though some generic elements (bankruptcy and lease restructuring) did occur.