By roughly one year after the discussion (around August 2025), the U.S. had not experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, nor had the NBER declared a new recession.

Evidence:

• BEA data show real GDP was positive throughout 2024, with Q4 2024 growing at about 2.3–2.4% annualized. (apps.bea.gov)
• Real GDP then declined in Q1 2025 (around −0.5 to −0.6% annualized after revisions), but rebounded in Q2 2025, growing about 3.3–3.8% annualized, so there was only one negative quarter followed by strong growth, not two negative quarters in a row. (bea.gov)
• The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee listings and later summaries show no new recession peak/trough dates after the April 2020 trough, meaning no officially dated recession in 2024–2025 as of late 2025. (nber.org)

Since the realized outcome by about August 2025 was that the U.S. had not entered a recession under either the common two‑negative‑quarters rule of thumb or the official NBER dating, the prediction that a recession was “more likely than not” by that time ended up being wrong in hindsight.