Last updated Nov 29, 2025
politicsgovernment
The Gavin Newsom recall petition in California will surpass 2 million signatures by roughly two weeks from early March 2021 (the end of the signature period), with a validation rate of about 84%, leading to a certified recall election to be held around August 2021.
They're up to 1.95 million signatures...They will be at or over 2,000,000 in 2 weeks, which is the end of the signature period. Their validation rate is about 84%. So I think this is clearly going to pass. There will be a recall election. It will be around August.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence shows that the substance of Sacks’ prediction was borne out, with only a minor miss on the exact election date:

  • Signatures surpassing 2 million by end of the period: The recall campaign ultimately submitted 2,117,730 signatures by the March 2021 deadline, exceeding 2 million, as recorded in the California Secretary of State–summarized history of the 2021 recall petition. (en.wikipedia.org) This matches his claim that they would be “at or over 2,000,000 in 2 weeks, which is the end of the signature period.” Contemporary coverage in early March 2021 already had organizers announcing about 1,950,000 collected signatures and “nearing 2 million.” (californiaglobe.com)

  • Validation rate around the mid‑80s: An early–February 2021 status report from the Secretary of State, cited by the Los Angeles Times, found about 84% of the signatures submitted at that point were valid. (latimes.com) The final official tally after the March 17 deadline was 1,719,943 valid of 2,117,730 submitted, about 81%, still a high validation rate and reasonably close to his “about 84%” statement, which reflected the then-current official figure. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Certified recall election taking place: On April 26, 2021, the Secretary of State announced that the recall effort had enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot; after the withdrawal window, a final count of 1,719,900 valid signatures confirmed that the recall election would be held. (en.wikipedia.org) This fulfills his prediction that “this is clearly going to pass. There will be a recall election.”

  • Timing of the recall election (“around August”): After certification on July 1, 2021, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis set the recall election date for September 14, 2021. (sos.ca.gov) That’s roughly one month later than “around August,” but still in late summer 2021 and within the same general timeframe he anticipated.

Given that:

  • the petition did surpass 2 million signatures by the deadline,
  • the validation rate was indeed high and in the low‑ to mid‑80% range at the time of his comment,
  • and a recall election was duly certified and held in late summer 2021,

the forecast’s key claims proved accurate. The only notable miss was that the actual election date landed in mid‑September rather than “around August,” which is a relatively small deviation from the predicted timing. Therefore, the overall prediction is best scored as right.