Sacks was accurately paraphrasing San Francisco’s own controller and five‑year financial plan, and the near‑term part of his prediction has played out, but the 2027–2028 piece has not yet resolved.

What has already happened (supports the prediction):

• In December 2022, Mayor London Breed’s budget instructions stated that San Francisco faced a two‑year General Fund shortfall of about $728.3 million, with a $527.6 million deficit in the second year (FY 2024–25)—essentially “about half a billion.” (sf.gov)
• Subsequent updates and advocacy pieces describe the FY 2024–25 budget process as addressing a “nearly $800 million” shortfall, closed via leaving positions vacant, cutting contracts, and using one‑time revenues—clear evidence of fiscal stress and difficult trade‑offs. (sfmms.org)
• By April 2025, the mayor’s budget director told the Board of Supervisors that the March update to the five‑year financial plan showed an $817.5 million shortfall over the next two years and a roughly $1.3 billion structural shortfall over the five‑year outlook, again underscoring ongoing, large projected gaps and the need for corrective policies. (citizenportal.ai)
• Coverage of Mayor Daniel Lurie’s 2025–26 budget notes he is closing an $800 million deficit over two years by cutting roughly 1,400 city jobs and reducing contracts and grants—exactly the kind of “difficult choices” Sacks anticipated. (sfchronicle.com)

What is still unresolved (why the overall verdict is inconclusive):

• The controller’s March 31, 2023 update indeed projected that, absent policy changes, San Francisco’s deficits would cumulatively reach about $1.3 billion by FY 2027–28, a figure repeated in subsequent commentary on the city’s finances. (bondbuyer.com)
• However, FY 2027–28 has not occurred yet (as of November 30, 2025). The city is legally required to adopt a balanced budget each year, and updated forecasts between now and 2027 could raise or lower the out‑year gaps. We therefore do not yet know whether the eventual 2027–28 structural deficit will actually be around $1.3 billion or something materially different.

So, while the first part of Sacks’s prediction—large FY 2024–25 shortfalls and intense fiscal stress forcing hard choices—has clearly come true, the key claim that deficits will be “around $1.3 billion” by FY 2027–28 cannot yet be verified. That makes the overall prediction inconclusive (too early) rather than definitively right or wrong.