ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
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Sacks @ 00:39:55Wrong
healtheconomy
As of mid‑October 2020, the COVID‑19 crisis is entering its final phase and will substantially wind down in severity and societal impact over the ensuing months, aided by effective treatments such as monoclonal antibodies and remdesivir.
it feels to me like we are really winding down on the whole the whole Covid thing.View on YouTube
Explanation

Why this prediction was wrong

  1. The pandemic did not wind down in the ensuing months after October 2020. In the U.S., the deadliest wave up to that point hit immediately afterward: CDC data show the 7‑day average of new COVID‑19 deaths peaked on January 11, 2021, and by March 17, 2021, the U.S. had recorded over 535,000 deaths. (archive.cdc.gov) Globally, cases and deaths continued to climb through 2021, reaching about 292 million reported cases and 5.43 million deaths by January 1, 2022, and more than 652 million cases and 6.7 million deaths by late December 2022. (emro.who.int) The Omicron wave (Dec 2021–Feb 2022) then produced the largest U.S. case surge, with ~30 million cases and ~170,000 deaths in just three months. (mdpi.com)

  2. The crisis phase lasted years, not months. The World Health Organization did not declare the end of COVID‑19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern until May 5, 2023—over 2.5 years after the October 2020 podcast. (who.int) Even after the emergency status ended, WHO and regional offices emphasized that COVID‑19 remained a significant ongoing health burden, requiring long‑term management. (paho.org)

  3. Remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies did not dramatically end the crisis. WHO’s large Solidarity trial and related analyses concluded that remdesivir has little or no effect on overall COVID‑19 mortality, contradicting hopes it would substantially change outcomes. (who.int) While some monoclonal antibodies helped in early variants, many lost effectiveness as the virus evolved; by late 2024 the FDA had fully revoked emergency authorizations for several major COVID antibody products because circulating variants were resistant and the drugs were no longer in use. (reuters.com)

Overall, the COVID‑19 crisis intensified after mid‑October 2020 and only gradually shifted into a more endemic, manageable phase over several years, driven largely by vaccination and accumulated immunity rather than a rapid wind‑down over the “ensuing months” via remdesivir and monoclonal antibodies.