I don't know how long it's going to take. But look, I think one of the big lessons here over the past 25 years is that you have security first... So security always has to come first, then you work out trade. And I think that India is fundamentally, extremely aligned with us on security... And I do think that the US India relationship is just very aligned. And I think therefore the investments that get made in the trade, relationships that get forged will be very stable over the next couple of decades.View on YouTube
The prediction is explicitly about "the next couple of decades"—i.e., roughly 20 years of stable, closely aligned U.S.–India security and trade relations. As of today (30 November 2025), only about seven months have elapsed since the podcast release (26 April 2025), which is far too short to evaluate a 20‑year forecast.
Available evidence so far actually shows deepening U.S.–India alignment in security and trade: a new 10‑year defense framework agreement has been signed and described by U.S. officials as indicating that military ties have "never been stronger"; joint leaders’ statements from early 2025 reaffirm a comprehensive global strategic partnership and launch new defense, trade, and technology initiatives; and recent commentary describes the relationship as entering a phase of “structured stabilisation,” with growing defense sales and efforts to resolve trade frictions. (whitehouse.gov) None of this, however, can confirm or falsify the 20‑year stability claim yet.
Because the prediction concerns a much longer time horizon than has passed, the correct rating is inconclusive (too early to tell).