Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show the official U‑3 U.S. unemployment rate at 6.2% in February 2021 and 6.0% in March 2021, matching Sacks’s statement that unemployment was about 6% at the time of the podcast.(beautifydata.com)

Sacks predicted that unemployment would fall to “3 or 4% in two quarters”, i.e., roughly by September 2021. However, BLS figures for that period are:

• August 2021: 5.2% unemployment.(bls.gov)
• September 2021: 4.8% unemployment.(economy.fedprimerate.com)

Thus, by the end of the two‑quarter horizon (around September 2021), unemployment had not reached the predicted 3–4% range; it was still nearly 5%. Unemployment did eventually fall into that range later in 2021: BLS data show 4.2% in November 2021 and 3.9% in December 2021, but that is roughly 8–9 months after March 2021 (three quarters, not two).(bts.gov)

Directionally, Sacks was right that unemployment would keep dropping and eventually return to the 3–4% zone, but the timing in his prediction was too aggressive. Because his forecast explicitly specified the two‑quarter horizon, and the target range was not reached by then, the prediction is best classified as wrong on its stated terms.