And if if it can just be DeSantis versus Trump in the primary, he has a much better shot than if it's Trump versus a bunch of other challengers. And I think that if he continues to pull this well within the Republican Party, I think Trump might not run again, because Trump definitely does not want to risk being a loser in the Republican primary.View on YouTube
Donald Trump did run in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. He officially announced his 2024 candidacy on November 15, 2022, and then actively campaigned through the 2024 primary season, ultimately securing the Republican nomination.
Ron DeSantis did not maintain the same polling strength against Trump that he had in late 2022. Through 2023, national Republican primary polls showed Trump opening up and then sustaining a large lead over DeSantis and other GOP contenders, and DeSantis’s relative position weakened rather than strengthened. Nonetheless, the key outcome in Sacks’s prediction — that Trump might not run again in order to avoid risking a primary loss — clearly did not occur: Trump chose to run despite any such risks and won the primary.
Because the observable real-world outcome (Trump ran and won the 2024 GOP primary) is directly contrary to the implied forecast that he would likely not run under the scenario being discussed, this prediction is best scored as wrong.