The prediction was that in 2023 and into the 2024 cycle, Donald Trump’s influence in the GOP would continue to wane, shown by weaker endorsements and more open defiance from Republican figures. The opposite happened on the key metrics the predictor named.

1. Endorsement effectiveness stayed extremely high. Compilations of Trump’s endorsements show that his Republican primary success rate in 2024 remained in the mid‑90% range (around 96–98%), in line with or even slightly above previous cycles, indicating that a Trump endorsement was still a powerful asset inside GOP primaries rather than a waning force. (grokipedia.com)

2. GOP elites largely rallied to him rather than defying him. After Trump’s first 2023 indictment, Republican leaders and rivals mostly closed ranks around him, with coverage noting that the party remained “firmly in the hold” of Trump and MAGA Republicans rather than peeling away.(washingtonpost.com) Following his 2024 New York felony conviction, top Republicans—including some previous skeptics such as Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins—again rallied to his defense, and House Speaker Mike Johnson publicly attacked the prosecution and trial on Trump’s behalf, underscoring continued deference rather than open rebellion.(politico.com)

3. He consolidated organizational and electoral control of the party. In early 2024, Trump effectively forced out RNC chair Ronna McDaniel and moved to install loyalists like Michael Whatley and Lara Trump in party leadership, described as part of his effort to solidify control over the GOP apparatus.(ft.com) Electorally, he then dominated the 2024 Republican primaries—winning Iowa in a historic landslide for a non‑incumbent, decisively winning New Hampshire, quickly clinching the delegate majority, and becoming the GOP nominee again—demonstrating overwhelming rank‑and‑file support rather than a continuing decline in influence.(en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, Trump’s endorsement power, the behavior of GOP officials, his control over party machinery, and his sweeping victory in the 2024 primaries all point to a reassertion and consolidation of influence within the Republican Party, not a continued waning. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.