ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
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Sacks @ 01:04:33Right
politicsgovernment
In 2022, an intensifying political conflict (“civil war”) between progressive and pragmatic/liberal Democrats will visibly escalate, with high-profile clashes in cities like San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York City, and at the federal level (e.g., over figures like Joe Manchin).
This is where I had the civil war between progressives and pragmatic liberals. Um, so building on what Chamath said, you're already seeing this in the feud between London Breed and Chesa Boudin. That is really going to, I think, blossom next year. We have not heard the last of that. You saw it in Philadelphia, where the mayor, Michael Nutter, took on Larry Krasner. I think you're going to see it in New York City between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites. Um, and you also saw in Washington, D.C., where the progressives were blaming Manchin for, you know, losing the build back better. So this is a civil war that's going to continue.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence from 2022 shows highly visible, intra-Democratic clashes between progressive and more moderate/pragmatic factions in exactly the arenas Sacks named:

  • San Francisco (London Breed vs. Chesa Boudin): In June 2022, voters recalled progressive DA Chesa Boudin, after a long, public conflict over crime and public safety in which Mayor London Breed and other moderates backed his removal. Breed then appointed a more moderate replacement, Brooke Jenkins. The recall was nationally covered as a backlash against progressive criminal-justice policies and part of a broader Democratic fight over crime and reform.(en.wikipedia.org)

  • Philadelphia (Michael Nutter vs. Larry Krasner context): Former Democratic mayor Michael Nutter had already attacked progressive DA Larry Krasner in late 2021 over his comments on crime. In 2022, Krasner was the target of a high-profile impeachment effort, driven by criticism that his progressive policies fueled gun violence. While the formal impeachment push came from Republicans in the state legislature, the controversy around Krasner’s policies and Nutter’s earlier broadside kept the moderate-vs-progressive divide in Philadelphia politics in the spotlight.【(washingtonpost.com)

  • New York City (Eric Adams vs. progressives): After taking office in January 2022, Mayor Eric Adams (running as a law-and-order, anti–“defund the police” Democrat) clashed with progressives over policing and crime policy. Coverage in early 2022 highlighted tensions between Adams and left-wing activists/officials skeptical of his plans to revive plainclothes anti-crime units and expand policing, explicitly framing this as a rift between the party’s moderate and progressive wings.【(washingtonpost.com)

  • Federal level (progressives vs. Joe Manchin): The rift over Build Back Better continued into 2022. Progressive lawmakers and groups publicly condemned Manchin for blocking or watering down the bill and later preemptively blamed him for expected Democratic midterm losses, portraying him as sabotaging the party’s agenda. This extended the late-2021 BBB fight into a very visible 2022 intra-party feud between progressives and more conservative Democrats.【(newsweek.com)

Taken together, 2022 featured exactly the kind of prominent, ongoing "civil war" Sacks predicted—between progressive and pragmatic/liberal Democrats—playing out in San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York City, and around Joe Manchin at the federal level. The conflicts not only continued but, in key cases like Boudin’s recall and the Manchin/BBB saga, clearly escalated in visibility and stakes, matching the substance and timing of the prediction.