Sacks correctly anticipated a consolidation phase in fintech: global fintech investment fell sharply after 2021 and M&A has increasingly been used to rationalize the sector, with reports in 2024–2025 explicitly describing a consolidation wave and rising fintech M&A deal values, especially in payments and infrastructure. (kpmg.com) However, the distribution of winners has not matched his forecast.

1. Mixed outcomes for the named online fintechs (Square/Block, Stripe, PayPal)

   • Stripe has indeed emerged as a major winner: after a valuation cut to about $50B in 2023, it rebounded to around $90–106B in 2025, above its 2021 peak, while processing $1.4T in payments in 2024 and operating profitably. (pymnts.com)
   • PayPal and Block (Square), by contrast, have lost a large portion of the equity value they had at the time of the prediction. PayPal’s market cap fell from roughly $220B in 2021 to about $59B in late 2025, and its share price is down about 75% from its 2021 high. (companiesmarketcap.com) Block’s market cap dropped from about $75B at end‑2021 to roughly $40B in 2025, despite joining the S&P 500 and giving optimistic long‑term guidance. (companiesmarketcap.com) These are still important companies, but they have not been clear “primary long‑term winners” relative to the broader financial sector.

2. Legacy banks have not “largely lost ground” and in many ways are winning

   • Large incumbent banks remain vastly bigger and have grown in value since 2021. JPMorgan’s market cap rose from about $468B in 2021 to around $846B in 2025; Bank of America’s is near $392B in 2025, up from about $359B in 2021. (companiesmarketcap.com) U.S. banks collectively reported a 13.5% profit increase in Q3 2025, with strong capital and liquidity, indicating sector health rather than broad decline. (reuters.com)
   • Strategy reports show a nuanced picture: a Boston Consulting Group study notes that banks are losing some market share to fintechs, while McKinsey’s 2024 Global Banking Review emphasizes that traditional banks have recovered profitability and many neobanks remain fragile. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) In checking accounts, digital banks/fintechs had 44% of new openings in 2024 (down from 47% in 2023), while megabanks regained share, suggesting incumbents are competing effectively rather than “largely losing ground.” (forbes.com) Overall, incumbents and card networks (e.g., JPMorgan, Bank of America, Visa, Mastercard) remain the dominant long‑term winners so far.

3. Conclusion
   The consolidation wave call was directionally right, and Stripe has turned into a clear winner. But the stronger part of the prediction — that "it’s going to be Square, Stripe, [and] PayPal ... not the offline legacy banks" who are the primary long‑term winners — has not held up: Stripe is thriving, yet PayPal and Block have dramatically de-rated, while large legacy banks have increased in value and profitability and continue to dominate the system. Given this divergence, the prediction as stated is best judged wrong rather than merely premature or ambiguous.