Evidence since the episode supports Sacks’ basic claim that (1) the Fed would raise rates aggressively and (2) U.S. inflation would be brought down from crisis levels to roughly normal levels within a few years.

• Inflation fell from 9%+ to the high‑2s/low‑3s within three years. U.S. CPI inflation peaked at about 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined steadily; by June 2025 the 12‑month CPI rate was around 2.7%, close to pre‑pandemic norms (2015‑2019 average ~1.8–2.1%).
• On the Fed’s preferred measure (PCE), headline inflation in late 2024–2025 has mostly run in the mid‑2% range: December 2024 PCE was 2.6% (core 2.8%), January 2025 PCE 2.5% (core 2.6%), and August 2025 PCE 2.7% (core 2.9%). Dallas and St. Louis Fed analysis notes inflation has been above the 2% target since 2021 but currently around 2.7–2.9%, i.e., much closer to target than at the 2022 peak. This indicates the 2021–22 high‑inflation episode (7–9%+ readings) has been ended, even if inflation is not exactly 2%.

• The Fed did in fact “raise interest rates high enough” in the interim. From early 2022 to July 2023 the Fed increased the federal funds rate from near 0% to 5.25–5.50%, one of the fastest hiking cycles in modern history. The rate then stayed restrictive through mid‑2024 before modest cuts as the Fed gained “greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2 percent.” This sequence matches Sacks’ mechanism: aggressive hikes followed by disinflation.

• Current debate is about a mild above‑target regime, not an ongoing high‑inflation crisis. Fed and OECD forecasts for 2025 generally put inflation around 2.7%, above the exact 2% target but far below 2022 levels. Research pieces explicitly frame the issue as whether we are in a persistently above‑target environment at roughly 2.7–2.9%, not whether the 2021–22 inflation spike persists. That nuance means the “inflation problem” as understood in 2022 (9% CPI, rapid price surges) has been resolved, even if fine‑tuning to exactly 2% is ongoing.

Given that by late 2025 U.S. inflation is back near historical norms (≈2–3%) and the Fed achieved this via the very rate hikes Sacks described, his medium‑term prediction that the Fed would “100% solve this inflation problem” by raising rates sufficiently is broadly borne out by the data, despite inflation still running modestly above the 2% target. Therefore the prediction is best classified as right.