Evidence from sector-wide SaaS and cloud data supports Sacks’s call that the 2022–mid‑2023 “software recession” ended around Q3 2023 and did not re‑start afterward.

• In the episode itself, Sacks cites Jamin Ball’s Clouded Judgement chart showing that after roughly four quarters of negative net‑new ARR growth, Q3 2023 flipped to slightly positive growth (~+2%), which he interprets as the end of the software recession and the start of a rebound in software revenues. (podscripts.co)

• Subsequent Clouded Judgement data (as summarized by HC Andersen Capital) show that aggregate net‑new ARR for a large basket of global SaaS companies remained positive through 2023–2024, though at much lower levels than 2021–2022 (for example, Q2 2024 net‑new ARR was about $615m vs. $860m in Q2 2023 and $969m in Q2 2022—still growth, just weaker). (hcandersencapital.dk) This is consistent with the recession ending but the recovery being modest and choppy.

• A Q4 2024 analysis of the PVC SaaS Index explicitly concludes that “the software spend recession of 2022 and 2023 seems to be fully behind us now,” and notes that overall SaaS spend rebounded by about 9% across all company sizes in 2024, based on High Alpha / OpenView benchmark data. (practicalvc.com) That independent characterization closely matches Sacks’s thesis that the “software recession” period had ended.

• Bessemer’s State of the Cloud 2024 and Cloud 100 work show strong growth in leading cloud/SaaS names—Cloud 100 average growth accelerating from ~55% in 2023 to ~70% in 2024, and broad AI‑driven expansion—again indicating a sector that is growing, not in contraction. (bvp.com)

• By early 2025 the environment had weakened again, but in slowdown terms, not a return to outright contraction. SaaStr’s summary of Jamin Ball’s Q1 2025 data reports that aggregate net‑new ARR for public cloud software was about $1.65B, down ~30% year‑over‑year from $2.33B in Q1 2024—described as the worst quarterly performance in years, but still positive net‑new ARR, i.e., the ARR base continued to grow. (saastr.com) Commentary that growth rates have been oscillating and that “re‑acceleration” hasn’t materialized underscores a sluggish recovery, not a renewed software recession. (hcandersencapital.dk)

Taken together: since Q3 2023, sector‑wide ARR has continued to grow, and multiple independent analyses explicitly say the 2022–2023 “software spend recession” is behind us, even though growth has remained volatile and often disappointing. That matches the core of Sacks’s prediction (the end of the software recession and a return to positive net‑new ARR), so the call is best judged as right, albeit overly optimistic about the strength and steadiness of the rebound.