Key measurable part of Sacks’s prediction was that by the end of 2023 U.S. consumers would "tap out" and the U.S. economy would enter a recession once the Fed raised rates to around 5.5%.

What actually happened:

• The Fed did raise the federal funds target range to 5.25–5.50% in July 2023 and held it there through year‑end, matching his rate call. (forbes.com)
• Credit card APRs did reach record highs around or above 20% by late 2023, consistent with his setup about consumer pressure. (bankrate.com)
• Despite that, real U.S. GDP grew about 2.5–3.1% in 2023, with Q4 2023 running at a 3.3% annualized pace; multiple outlets and official data note that the economy "easily skirted" the widely expected recession. (cnbc.com)
• The NBER and NBER-based recession indicators show no U.S. recession months at any point in 2023; the expansion that began after the April 2020 trough continued through at least the end of 2023. (nber.org)
• Unemployment stayed unusually low (around or below 4%) and BLS/press analyses emphasize that strong consumer spending was the main driver of 2023 growth, contradicting the idea that the consumer had "tapped out." (bls.gov)

Because the central outcome he tied to 5.5% rates—consumers breaking and the U.S. entering recession in 2023—did not occur, the prediction is best judged wrong, even though some of the background conditions (high rates, expensive credit) were accurate.