Sacks @ 00:12:18Right
economy
Following this May 2022 conversation, U.S. residential home prices will begin to decline as rising mortgage rates force sellers to drop prices; the downturn in home prices will materialize in the ensuing housing data (within the next few quarters after May 2022).
I think home prices that's coming, Jason, because like you said, mortgages are going up.View on YouTube
Explanation
Multiple national home-price indices show that U.S. residential prices peaked in mid‑2022 and then declined for several months, well within the “next few quarters” after the May 2022 podcast:
- The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller National Index peaked in June 2022 and then fell for at least seven consecutive months; by November 2022 it was down about 3.6% from the June peak, and by January 2023 prices had fallen roughly 5% from that peak. (press.spglobal.com)
- An analysis of Case‑Shiller data in Fortune notes that national home prices peaked in June 2022 and then declined about 3% (seasonally adjusted) and 5% (not seasonally adjusted) over the following months, describing it as a post‑WWII home‑price correction. (fortune.com)
- National Association of Realtors data reported by Axios show that the median existing-home price fell about 6% between June and August 2022, meaning price declines were visible in the standard housing data just a couple of months after the May conversation. (axios.com)
- Over the same period, 30‑year mortgage rates roughly doubled: Freddie Mac’s survey shows the average 30‑year fixed rate rising from around 3% in 2021 to 5.8% in June 2022 and then above 6%–6.7% by September 2022, with Freddie Mac explicitly noting that these higher rates were putting downward pressure on home prices. (freddiemac.gcs-web.com)
These data confirm that U.S. home prices began declining within a few quarters after May 2022, in conjunction with sharply rising mortgage rates, and that this downturn clearly showed up in the standard national housing statistics, matching Sacks’ prediction.