As of November 30, 2025, there has been no comprehensive regional peace or "larger" normalization deal in the Middle East of the type Sacks was referring to (e.g., a Saudi–Israel grand bargain plus broader regional normalization).

Key facts:

• Saudi–Israel normalization has not happened. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly reaffirmed that it will not normalize relations with Israel without concrete steps toward an independent Palestinian state and a halt to the Gaza war, and negotiations have stalled over precisely this point.(congress.gov) In 2025, the Saudi foreign minister again stated publicly that normalization can only come through establishing a Palestinian state.(middleeastmonitor.com)
• The Gaza peace plan agreed in October 2025 is a multilateral ceasefire and demilitarization framework between Israel and Hamas focused on ending the Gaza war. It includes a conditional pathway toward Palestinian self‑determination and possible recognition of Palestinian statehood, but it is not a broad regional normalization or final-status peace, and implementation and durability remain uncertain.(en.wikipedia.org)
• The Abraham Accords have seen only limited expansion since 2023 (e.g., Kazakhstan symbolically acceding in 2025, despite already having relations with Israel), while the core Israeli–Palestinian conflict and Gaza/West Bank issues remain unresolved and widely recognized by regional leaders as the key barrier to any lasting, comprehensive Middle East peace.(britannica.com)

Logically, Sacks’s prediction is of the form: “Until the Palestinian question is substantively addressed, a larger regional deal will not occur.” To falsify it, we would need to see a genuine, comprehensive regional peace/normalization deal achieved without such a substantive resolution. That has not happened so far, so the prediction has not been shown wrong.

However, because the statement is open‑ended (it makes a claim about what will or won’t happen until some future condition is met), we also cannot prove it definitively correct—a large regional deal could still occur in the future without a full political resolution of the Palestinian issue.

Therefore, the only defensible status today is "inconclusive (too early)": events since October 2023 are consistent with Sacks’s prediction, but they do not yet settle it either way.