Assessment

The prediction was that in 2023 both:

• California would be looking at roughly a $24B budget deficit, and
• San Francisco would also have a gigantic budget shortfall, with significant fiscal pain in the form of spending cuts or other austerity.

California (state)

• In November 2022, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) released its 2023–24 fiscal outlook stating that the state would face a $24 billion “budget problem” (deficit) in 2023–24, explicitly defining this as a deficit where resources are insufficient to fund currently authorized services. This is exactly the order of magnitude and fiscal year Sacks referenced. (lao.ca.gov)
• Governor Newsom’s January 2023 proposed 2023–24 budget acknowledged a projected $22.5B deficit, very close to the LAO’s $24B estimate, and proposed to close it through a mix of solutions emphasizing delays, fund shifts, and some spending cuts, rather than new taxes. (src.senate.ca.gov)
• Subsequent reporting on the evolving shortfalls shows that managing these multi‑year deficits has in fact involved broad spending reductions across many programs (e.g., an AP analysis describing multibillion‑dollar state deficits being addressed with “widespread spending cuts across 260 programs,” including trims in housing, broadband, water infrastructure, and education). (apnews.com) While some of the heaviest cuts were embedded in 2024 budget actions, they stem directly from the deficit trajectory identified in 2023–24.

Taken together, California did experience a major budget shortfall of roughly the predicted magnitude (~$24B) and responded with significant belt‑tightening measures and program reductions, matching the spirit of “a lot of pain.”

San Francisco (city)

• In October 2023, Mayor London Breed warned of a “growing structural deficit” and instructed departments to immediately begin addressing an anticipated at least $500M deficit in FY 2025–26, ordering measures such as limiting contract expansions, pausing yet‑to‑start programs, eliminating some vacant jobs, and other cost‑containment steps. (sfstandard.com)
• By December 2023, the city formally projected an $800M deficit over two years and ordered departments to prepare 10% General Fund spending cuts plus an additional 5% contingency, clearly constituting the “gigantic budget shortfall” and significant austerity Sacks predicted. (sfstandard.com)

Conclusion

• The state did in fact confront a multi‑billion‑dollar deficit of roughly $24B in 2023–24, and the solution set included meaningful spending reductions and other painful budget maneuvers.
• San Francisco also entered 2023 in worsening fiscal condition and, by late 2023, was dealing with hundreds of millions in projected deficits and was actively imposing substantial spending cuts.

Because both parts of the prediction — large shortfalls for both California and San Francisco plus significant fiscal pain — materialized in line with the described scale and timing, the prediction is best judged as right.