Trump’s D.C. crime initiative has clearly been implemented: through the March 2025 “Safe and Beautiful” executive order and task force, followed by the August 11, 2025 executive order federalizing the Metropolitan Police Department and deploying National Guard and federal agents under a declared crime emergency. (whitehouse.gov) Early data the administration cites show notable drops in some reported crime categories (e.g., violent crime and carjackings) since these measures, and federal officials and allied media are actively touting D.C. as a success of Trump’s crime crackdown. (whitehouse.gov) However, mainstream reporting and fact‑checks stress that D.C. crime was already at or near a 30‑year low before the takeover, that homicides have continued during the deployment despite Trump’s exaggerated public claims, and that there is an ongoing federal investigation into potential manipulation or underreporting of crime data. (theguardian.com) The crackdown is also highly controversial: polls show large majorities in D.C. and nationally opposing the deployment, a federal judge has ruled the Guard deployment unlawful (stayed pending appeal), and large national protests have targeted Trump’s broader use of federal forces. (en.wikipedia.org) Crucially for the prediction, no major national election cycle (e.g., the 2026 midterms) has yet occurred since the August 2025 takeover, and current coverage frames D.C. as a partisan flashpoint rather than as broadly accepted proof that Republican crime policies outperform Democratic approaches in deep‑blue cities. (washingtonpost.com) Because the key outcome—how the national political narrative and electoral dynamics evolve in subsequent election cycles—has not yet had time to play out, it is too early to determine whether this prediction will ultimately be borne out.