Trump’s administration implemented essentially the full policy bundle Sacks described: (1) an executive order in March 2025 (“Making the District of Columbia Safe and Beautiful”) directing the National Park Service to promptly clear homeless encampments and graffiti on federal land and to coordinate broad clean‑up and law‑enforcement efforts in D.C.; (2) a crime‑emergency order on August 11, 2025, federalizing the Metropolitan Police Department and deploying National Guard and federal agents; and (3) an August 25, 2025 order to end “cashless bail” in D.C. by maximizing federal detention and pressuring the city over its no‑cash‑bail regime.(whitehouse.gov) Congress has also moved in Trump’s direction on juveniles, with House‑passed bills in September 2025 that would lower the age at which D.C. teens can be tried as adults for serious violent crimes and require youth sentences to match adult mandatory minimums, and prosecutors have already charged high‑profile 17‑year‑old suspects as adults.(wsj.com)

There is clear evidence of rapid, visible changes in “lawlessness” of the kind Sacks emphasized. Following the March order, Interior and the National Park Service were directed to remove all homeless encampments and graffiti on NPS‑managed land in D.C., and by mid‑August Park Police had already dismantled about 70 encampments, with only two left to clear.(whitehouse.gov) After the August crime‑emergency declaration, National Guard troops and federal agencies were put to work not only on patrols but also on trash pickup, graffiti removal, and dismantling additional encampments across popular areas like the Mall and Union Station, which contemporaneous coverage describes as a highly visible clean‑up and “beautification” drive.(theguardian.com) Critics note that many unhoused people remain on benches and in shelters, so the problem is far from solved, but the physical signs of disorder (tents, graffiti, trash) on federal land have been substantially reduced in a matter of months, not years.(reuters.com)

On crime levels, the data show a large and ongoing decline that continued through and after Trump’s D.C. measures, with at least some evidence of further short‑term improvement. Violent crime and homicides had already fallen sharply from a 2023 spike: D.C. recorded a 31–32% drop in homicides and about a 35–40% drop in overall violent crime in 2024 versus 2023, with carjackings nearly cut in half.(axios.com) By August 2025—around the time of the federal takeover—police data showed violent crime down about 26% year‑to‑date compared with 2024, with big declines in robberies and carjackings.(politifact.com) In the weeks immediately following Trump’s August 11 "crime emergency," media reports (drawing on MPD and federal figures) highlighted 12 consecutive days without a homicide and early operation statistics claiming double‑digit percentage drops in overall crime, robberies, carjackings, and violent crime, along with more than 1,000 arrests—evidence of a noticeable short‑term shift in measured crime and enforcement intensity.(nypost.com)

By late November 2025, independent fact‑checks using MPD data report that homicides in D.C. are down roughly 29% year‑over‑year and that violent crime is at its lowest level in more than 30 years, even while noting that Trump has exaggerated the extent of improvement in his rhetoric.(apnews.com) Those same analyses also emphasize that the downtrend began well before Trump’s August 2025 takeover, and some question whether the “crime emergency” was ever justified.(davisvanguard.org) However, Sacks’ normalized prediction only conditions on the policies being implemented and then anticipates that visible disorder and crime will fall noticeably within months rather than years. In the actual timeline, Trump’s D.C. orders were implemented, encampments and graffiti were aggressively cleared from federal spaces, and crime statistics continued to fall—with some additional short‑term improvements highlighted right after the crackdown—over the ensuing few months. On that narrow, outcome‑focused reading, the prediction that lawlessness and crime in D.C. would show a rapid, noticeable decline after the policies were put in place has come true, even though much of the improvement predates the federal takeover and cannot be cleanly attributed to it.