Sacks @ 00:48:48Wrong
politicsmarkets
As an alternative to a poison pill, Twitter’s board will block Elon Musk by finding another acquirer at the same or a higher price than Musk’s offer, likely a large incumbent such as Disney or Google; if Google bids, the Biden administration and FTC chair Lina Khan will allow the deal to proceed by standing down on antitrust enforcement.
Or there's one other possibility that they will find a buyer for Twitter, and the way they will defeat Elon will be to find another buyer at the same or greater price, and they will place Twitter in the hands of another company who they regard as culturally safer, because that company buys into the regime of censorship. And it might be Disney, it might even be Google. I'm telling you, I think that if Google were the company to step up, the administration would ultimately support that deal rather than Elon getting the company. And I think they... would [ask] Lina Khan, to stand down in that instance and let it go through.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction described a specific alternative outcome to Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter:
- Claimed outcome: Twitter’s board would defeat Musk by finding another buyer at the same or higher price, likely a large incumbent (e.g., Disney or Google), and place Twitter in that buyer’s hands.
- Additional conditional claim: If Google bid for Twitter, the Biden administration and FTC chair Lina Khan would allow the acquisition to proceed by standing down on antitrust enforcement.
What actually happened:
- On April 25, 2022, Twitter’s board accepted Elon Musk’s offer to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share, in a deal valued at about $44 billion. No competing acquisition offer from Disney, Google, or any other buyer materialized at the same or a higher price.
- The transaction eventually closed on October 27, 2022, and Musk took Twitter private. There is no record of a serious rival acquisition bid from Disney, Google, or other incumbents during the process, nor of any regulatory review of a hypothetical Google–Twitter deal (because no such deal was proposed).
Since the core predicted scenario—Twitter’s board blocking Musk by selling to another acquirer such as Disney or Google, and regulators then allowing a Google–Twitter deal—did not occur at all, the prediction is wrong.