And I think Starlink is going to be a phenomenal business.View on YouTube
Evidence since late 2022 shows Starlink has in fact become a very large, commercially successful, and profitable satellite-communications business, well above the scale of typical players.
On scale and revenue: Starlink’s customer base grew from ~1 million subscribers in December 2022 to about 8 million by November 2025, an order‑of‑magnitude jump in three years. (en.wikipedia.org) Industry analyses estimate Starlink revenue at roughly $4.2B in 2023 and about $7.7–$8.2B in 2024, with projections around $11–12.3B in 2025, making it SpaceX’s largest revenue driver. (arstechnica.com) Reports focused solely on Starlink value the business at well over $100B enterprise value, underscoring how central it has become to the company. (globenewswire.com)
On profitability: Elon Musk announced in November 2023 that Starlink had achieved breakeven cash flow, and later commentary from SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell confirmed that Starlink has since turned profitable. (cnbc.com) Independent analyst work (e.g., Quilty Space, summarized in financial media) estimates several hundred million dollars of positive free cash flow in 2024 on multi‑billion‑dollar revenue, with free cash flow expected to rise into the low single‑digit billions as revenues pass $10B+. (arstechnica.com) This is consistent with a mature, high‑margin infrastructure business rather than an early-stage loss leader.
Relative to typical satellite operators, Starlink is already dominant on commercial metrics. Established GEO/MEO operators like SES and Eutelsat report total annual revenues around €2.0B (~$2.1B) and €1.24B (~$1.3–1.4B) respectively, while their newer LEO broadband lines (e.g., OneWeb at Eutelsat) are still sub‑$0.3B businesses. (satellitetoday.com) Viasat, one of the larger traditional broadband players, generates about $4.5B in annual revenue but remains loss‑making and heavily indebted. (beyondspx.com) In contrast, Starlink alone is now bigger than any single incumbent satcom operator by revenue, is profitable, and continues to grow rapidly.
Given that (1) Starlink has scaled to many millions of customers worldwide, (2) it generates multi‑billion‑dollar revenues that exceed those of most legacy satellite‑communications firms, and (3) it has crossed into sustained profitability and positive cash flow, Sacks’s 2022 prediction that “Starlink is going to be a phenomenal business”—interpreted as a highly successful, large‑scale commercial business with substantial revenues and profits relative to typical satellite‑comms businesses—has, by late 2025, clearly come true.