Sacks’s prediction has largely borne out.

After Dobbs, many Republican-led states enacted near-total abortion bans with no rape or incest exceptions (e.g., Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas), matching his "no‑compromise" scenario. This hardened stance became a defining feature of the party’s brand on abortion. (kff.org)

Electorally, Republicans have not replicated Youngkin‑style broad victories in competitive states since these bans took effect. In the 2022 midterms—expected to be a GOP “red wave”—Republicans only narrowly won the U.S. House while Democrats gained a Senate seat, an historically strong showing for the party in power. Analyses across major outlets conclude that abortion backlash was a central reason the red wave failed to materialize. (theguardian.com)

In high‑profile statewide races, hardline anti‑abortion Republicans frequently underperformed or lost in states where a Youngkin‑style win might otherwise have been plausible. In Michigan, for example, voters simultaneously passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights and gave Democrats a governing trifecta; Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defeated Tudor Dixon, who opposed abortion in nearly all cases, by a far larger margin than polls suggested. (en.wikipedia.org) Similar patterns appeared in Pennsylvania and Arizona, where Democratic candidates beat Republicans tied to strict abortion positions while making abortion central to their campaigns. (theguardian.com)

Voters have also directly punished no‑compromise positions through ballot measures. Since Dobbs, most state‑level abortion referendums have gone in the pro‑rights direction, including in red states such as Kansas and Kentucky; overall, in 13 of 16 post‑Dobbs ballot measures, the abortion‑rights side has won. (en.wikipedia.org) In 2023, Ohio voters enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution and Virginia voters handed full legislative control to Democrats after Republicans campaigned on new abortion limits—results widely read as further backlash to GOP abortion policy. (en.wikipedia.org)

By 2025, Virginia itself—where Youngkin’s 2021 win had been the model of broad Republican success—swung back decisively to Democrats, who won the governorship and expanded their legislative majority while running in part on protecting abortion rights, ending the GOP era Youngkin had started. (washingtonpost.com) Taken together, the proliferation of uncompromising GOP abortion bans and the consistent electoral and ballot‑measure backlash against them align closely with Sacks’s forecast that “if the parties don’t compromise on this, voters will eventually punish them” and that Republicans would not keep seeing Youngkin‑like victories under a no‑compromise stance.