As of November 30, 2025, the Supreme Court has not overturned either Obergefell v. Hodges (same‑sex marriage) or Loving v. Virginia (interracial marriage). Both decisions remain binding precedent, and key aspects of Obergefell and Loving are now also codified in the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act, which requires federal and interstate recognition of same‑sex and interracial marriages.​(en.wikipedia.org)

On the certiorari part of the prediction: in Ermold v. Davis (the Kim Davis case), the petitioner explicitly asked the Court not only to review her liability but also to overturn Obergefell. On November 10, 2025, the Supreme Court denied certiorari without comment, leaving the lower‑court judgment (and Obergefell) in place and explicitly refusing to take up that direct challenge.​(en.wikipedia.org) There have been political and advocacy efforts (e.g., an Idaho House resolution) urging the Court to reverse Obergefell, but these are nonbinding and have not produced any granted case aimed at overruling the marriage precedents.​(them.us) Likewise, there has been no Supreme Court case granting certiorari to reconsider or overturn Loving v. Virginia.

Although Justice Thomas has urged the Court, in his Dobbs concurrence, to reconsider substantive due‑process precedents including Obergefell, the Court as a whole has not acted on that suggestion.​(newsweek.com) The Court has heard related religious‑liberty and free‑speech cases involving same‑sex weddings, such as 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, but those were framed around First Amendment questions and did not ask the Court to overrule Obergefell itself.​(en.wikipedia.org) Taken together, this means the prediction—that the Court would neither overturn the same‑sex and interracial marriage precedents nor grant certiorari in a case directly seeking to overturn them—has been accurate so far.