Sacks @ 01:06:16Wrong
politicsgovernment
There remained, as of May–June 2022, a possible outcome in which Chief Justice Roberts would secure one additional vote to uphold Roe v. Wade while simultaneously modifying it to permit restrictive state laws such as Mississippi’s 15‑week ban.
So let's assume that this is the decision. By the way, it's still possible that Roberts could peel off a vote, and then we would get a scenario in which Roe is upheld while modifying it to allow, you know, laws like the Mississippi law.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction described a possible outcome in which Chief Justice Roberts would “peel off a vote” so that:
- Roe v. Wade would be upheld, and
- It would be modified to allow restrictive state laws like Mississippi’s 15‑week ban.
What actually happened in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization on June 24, 2022 was:
- The Supreme Court upheld Mississippi’s 15‑week abortion ban.
- A 5–4 majority explicitly overturned Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, holding that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion.
- Chief Justice Roberts concurred only in the judgment to uphold Mississippi’s law but did not join the portion of the opinion that overturned Roe and Casey; he proposed a more limited ruling that would stop at upholding the 15‑week ban while not fully overruling Roe/Casey, and he did not attract an additional vote to that position.
Because no justice joined Roberts in a compromise position and Roe was not upheld in any form, the scenario the predictor treated as still possible — Roe upheld but modified to allow laws like Mississippi’s — did not occur.
Therefore, the prediction is wrong: the specific outcome he floated never materialized, and Roe v. Wade was overturned instead.