Trump did in fact win the national popular vote in 2024, taking about 49.8% to Kamala Harris’s 48.3%, and won the Electoral College 312–226.(en.wikipedia.org) However, multiple nonpartisan analyses explicitly conclude that this was not a landslide: the Council on Foreign Relations and others note that 312 electoral votes and a 1.5‑point popular‑vote margin are modest by historical standards and smaller than classic "landslide" wins like 1964, 1972, or 1984.(cfr.org) The Cook Political Report points out that the race ultimately hinged on roughly 230,000 votes across Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, underscoring how close the outcome was.(cookpolitical.com) In addition, pre‑election national polling averages generally showed Harris with a small lead rather than Trump clearly leading the popular vote, contradicting the scenario the prediction envisioned.(aljazeera.com) Since Trump did win the popular vote but the result is widely characterized as a narrow or modest victory rather than an Electoral College landslide, the conditional claim "if Trump is winning the popular vote, then it’s a landslide" did not hold in practice.