ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Prediction
Sacks
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Sacks @ 00:38:39Wrong
economyhealth
In the United States, the post‑COVID economy will rebound strongly in 2021, with a boom resembling a "Roaring 20s" environment; specifically, unemployment will fall to roughly 3% by the end of 2021 and the acute phase of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S. will effectively be over by May 2021.
Everyone's been lulled into a false sense of security because interest rates are so low... the economy is getting better. Right? It looks like we're about to have the Roaring 20s. The economy looks like it's rebounding. It's about to boom. Goldman Sachs says we're going to be down to like 3% unemployment by the end of the year. It's coming back really fast. Covid is going to be over in May.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sacks tied several specific claims together: (1) a very strong post‑COVID boom in 2021, (2) U.S. unemployment falling to roughly 3% by the end of 2021, and (3) COVID in the U.S. being effectively “over in May” 2021.

  1. Economic rebound / “Roaring 20s” boom
    The direction of this part was broadly right. U.S. real GDP grew about 5.7% in 2021, the strongest annual growth since the early 1980s, with broad-based increases in consumption and investment, consistent with a sharp post‑pandemic rebound. (bea.gov) Labor markets also recovered rapidly, with solid job creation and falling unemployment. (unemploymentdata.com) So the general idea of a strong 2021 recovery was largely accurate.

  2. Unemployment at ~3% by end of 2021
    However, the specific unemployment call was too optimistic. The official U.S. unemployment rate in December 2021 was 3.9% (seasonally adjusted), not “about 3%.” (unemploymentdata.com) The annual average unemployment rate for 2021 was about 5.4%, well above 3%. (theworlddata.com) While unemployment did fall quickly, it did not reach the low‑3% range he endorsed.

  3. COVID “over in May” 2021
    This part of the prediction clearly failed. In May 2021, the U.S. was still recording tens of thousands of new COVID cases per day; CDC data show a 7‑day average of roughly 21,000–35,000 daily cases that month. (archive.cdc.gov) The federal COVID-19 public health emergency was repeatedly renewed through 2021 and 2022 and did not expire until May 11, 2023. (aota.org) Later in 2021, the Delta variant drove a major surge; by mid‑August the U.S. was back above 130,000 cases per day and hospitals in many regions were at or near crisis levels. (en.wikipedia.org) That is inconsistent with the acute phase being “over” by May 2021.

Overall: The broad call of a strong economic rebound was directionally correct, but the specific unemployment target was missed and the assertion that COVID would be “over in May” 2021 was decisively wrong given ongoing high transmission, renewed surges, and the continuation of the federal public health emergency into 2023. Taken as a single bundled prediction, this makes the overall forecast wrong.